Metro LTP 2034 ‘Per Capita’ Debt Levels:
The chart below shows 2034 per capita debt levels for six Metro TA’s: Tauranga, Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Hutt, and Christchurch.
The debt figure for Tauranga is taken from the signed-off 2024-2034 LTP, while the debt figures for the others are taken from their respective draft 2024-2034 LTP consultation documents.
The 2034 population figures are derived from the Stats NZ ‘Projected Population of Territorial Authority Areas: 2018 (base)-2048 update’ using a linear interpolation between the ‘medium’ projections of the 2033 and 2038 populations.
Dunedin has not been included in this analysis as Dunedin has chosen to not do a 2024-234 LTP, instead doing an Annual Plan in 2024, and an LTP in 2025.
The disparity between Tauranga and the other Metros is obvious.
Ceteris paribus, higher debt means higher rates.
That said, given the link between debt, capex and consequent opex, additional analysis focussing on the nature of the associated capex and the consequent opex would be informative.
If Tauranga’s capex is opex-heavy (like a museum) as opposed to oprev-heavy (like a parking building), then the situation is even worse than it first appears.